大气环境的光触媒净化技术

介绍了光触媒对大气环境净化的机理，着重讨论了TiO2光触媒的活性、固定以及对大气污染杨的处理过程、问题等，并对光触媒技术的未来作了展望，以期推动我国在光触媒技术方面的研究。     

自然灾害变动的集成预测模型及其应用

本文提出了以非线性回归拟合发展趋势、正弦函数逼近周期变动和马尔可夫链刻划随机扰动的集成预测模型，并应用于山东省农业自然灾害成灾面积的变动规律模拟，得到了较好的预测效果。理论和实践表明，集成预测模型优于传统的单模型预测，为预测具有复杂机制的自然灾害演变提供了一种新方法。     

减轻旱灾,谋求旱区可持续发展的综合途径与措施

运用旱区环境社会学的观点和方法，从旱灾、旱区环境与人类行为交互作用的角度分析旱灾，提出减轻旱灾、谋求旱区可持续发展的综合途径、措施与对策。对策的重点是非技术措施与方法，如调适人类开发利用生态资源的观念、方法及群体行为，改善旱区的社会格局、加强旱区人类行为评估和移民管理等。同时提出减轻旱灾，必须强化旱灾的社会学研究。     

自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向

由于自然灾害系统的复杂性及数据资料的不完备性,人们不可能精确估计任何自然灾害发生的概率,"概率值估不准"是现有超越概率风险区划图的致命弱点.简要回顾了针对这一问题已进行的提高估计精度和进行模糊风险计算的有关研究,并将模糊风险研究引入风险区划图的编制,给出了自然灾害软风险区划图的定义和一个初步的样式.讨论了这种风险图在体现风险值估不准方面,以及在为用户提供更多风险信息,为决策者提供调整余地等方面的优点.研究结果表明,软风险区划图是自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向.为推进这一研究领域的发展,对今后的工作提出了一些建议.     

着装舒适性的新热感指数

以Fanger等人建立的预告平均票数（PMV）、温斯洛提出的不舒服皮肤湿度指教（DISC）和有效温度指数（ET★）为基础。阐述了A.P．Gaggcr等人建立的人体对衣内热环境反应的新标准预测指数PMV＊。在此基础上。详尽分析了与人体舒适性密切相关的温度指标和感觉指标。同时也对原预告平均票数（PMV）与新的预告平均票数（PMV★）进行了深入细致的比较，探讨了PMV★及新的舒适一温度图的适用性。     

Research and application of method of oxygen isotope of inorganic phosphate in Beijing agricultural soils

Phosphorus (P) in agricultural ecosystems is an essential and limited element for plants and microorganisms. However, environmental problems caused by P accumulation as well as by P loss have become more and more serious. Oxygen isotopes of phosphate can trace the sources, migration, and transformation of P in agricultural soils. In order to use the isotopes of phosphate oxygen, appropriate extraction and purification methods for inorganic phosphate from soils are necessary. Here, we combined two different methods to analyze the oxygen isotopic composition of inorganic phosphate (δ¹⁸O_P) from chemical fertilizers and different fractions (Milli-Q water, 0.5 mol L^?1 NaHCO₃ (pH = 8.5), 0.1 mol L^?1 NaOH and 1 mol L^?1 HCl) of agricultural soils from the Beijing area. The δ¹⁸O_P results of the water extracts and NaHCO₃ extracts in most samples were close to the calculated equilibrium value. These phenomena can be explained by rapid P cycling in soils and the influence of chemical fertilizers. The δ¹⁸O_P value of the water extracts and NaHCO₃ extracts in some soil samples below the equilibrium value may be caused by the hydrolysis of organic P fractions mediated by extracellular enzymes. The δ¹⁸O_P values of the NaOH extracts were above the calculated equilibrium value reflecting the balance state between microbial uptake of phosphate and the release of intracellular phosphate back to the soil. The HCl extracts with the lowest δ¹⁸O_P values and highest phosphate concentrations indicated that the HCl fraction was affected by microbial activity. Hence, these δ¹⁸O_p values likely reflected the oxygen isotopic values of the parent materials. The results suggested that phosphate oxygen isotope analyses could be an effective tool in order to trace phosphate sources, transformation processes, and its utilization by microorganisms in agricultural soils.     

基于布谷鸟搜索优化的光伏电站辐照强度预测

针对光伏电站日前小时短期辐照强度的预测准确性问题,且考虑到支持向量机的学习参数对预测模型的性能有较大影响,为进一步提高数据的预测精度,利用布谷鸟搜索算法对支持向量机的惩罚因子c和核参数g进行优化,提出了一种基于布谷鸟搜索算法和支持向量回归的组合预测方法。仿真结果表明:该方法大大提高了光伏辐照强度预测的准确性和精度,可行且高效,适用于光伏在线预测。     

菲和镉单一及复合污染条件下在毛蚶体内的富集动力学研究

采用室内半静态双箱动力学模型实验,研究了菲和镉单一及复合污染条件下在毛蚶(Anadara subcrenata)体内的生物富集,通过对富集与释放过程中毛蚶体内菲和Cd的富集量进行非线性曲线拟合,获得了菲和Cd单一及复合污染条件下在毛蚶体内的吸收速率常数k1、释放速率常数k2、生物富集因子BCF、生物半衰期B1/2和平衡状态下最大富集量CA max等动力学参数。实验结果表明,菲和Cd在实验前期富集速率较高,8 d以后富集速率减缓,释放阶段与富集阶段相似。毛蚶对菲的BCF值为37.80,远大于Cd的BCF值13.12,且生物半衰期时间更长,菲更容易在生物体内富集。菲和Cd联合暴露条件下,在毛蚶体内的CA max和BCF值均大于单一作用,说明二者同时暴露时,毛蚶对菲和镉的吸收富集均有所增强。实验模型拟合度较好,输出值和实测值之间无显著性差异,拟合方程和拟合参数可信。     

Cancer risk from gaseous carbonyl compounds in indoor environment generated from household coal combustion in Xuanwei,China

Airborne carbonyls were characterized from emitted indoor coal combustion. Samples were collected in Xuanwei (Yunnan Province), a region in China with a high rate of lung cancer. Eleven of 19 types of samples (58%) demonstrated formaldehyde concentrations higher than the World Health Organization exposure limit (a 30-min average of 100 μg m^?3). Different positive significant correlations between glyoxal/methylglyoxal and formaldehyde/acetaldehyde concentrations were observed, suggesting possible different characteristics in emissions between two pairs of carbonyl compounds. A sample in the highest inhalation risk shows 29.2 times higher risk than the lowest sample, suggesting different coal sampling locations could contribute to the variation of inhalation risk. Inhabitants in Xuanwei also tend to spend more time cooking and more days per year indoors than the national average. The calculated cancer risk ranged from 2.2–63 × 10^?5, which shows 13 types of samples at high-risk level. Cumulative effect in combination with different carbonyls could have contributed to the additive actual inhalation cancer risk. There is a need to explicitly address the health effects of environmentally relevant doses, considering life-long exposure in indoor dwellings.     

复合链式结构下中国林业碳库系统测度模型构建

温室气体上升导致的全球气候变暖问题不容忽视,增加森林碳汇和木质林产品碳储是缓解温室效应的有效途径。根据森林碳汇功能与林产品碳储功能的关联理论与模型,推导和改进包括森林子碳库、土壤子碳库及木质林产品子碳库在内的林业碳库核算模型及方法,以实现目标碳从森林碳库向木质林产品碳库的过渡与转移。基于气候变化背景下森林-林产品产业链的发展现状,构建包括森林子碳库和林产品子碳库的复合一体化林业碳库模型,使之为中国林业碳库的计量与评价提供判据。首先,对包含森林子碳库和木质林产品子碳库在内的世界林业碳库的发展现状进行探讨,归纳和比较国内外主流的关联林业碳库评估方法模型,从而对中国林业碳库模型的构建提供理论背景支持和逻辑方法支撑。其次,分析现有中国林业碳库评估存在的优势和弊端,找出适合中国林业特点的国家碳库创新评估路径,运用政府间气候变化专门委员会指定的生产法的思路,通过分析目标碳在林产品产业链生产、加工等过程中的流入和支出,提出创新中国林业碳库的模型构想并对其系统内涵进行分析。最后,赋予中国林业碳库系统模型数学表达,分析其数理结构并进行逻辑演绎,在森林子碳库和木质林产品子碳库两个复合链式体系下构建中国林业碳库系统测度模型(ForestProducts Carbon Model/FPCM)。